Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
