Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.
But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite candidates.
Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.
Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.
Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!
Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.
Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.
The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.
Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.
The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.
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Astrophysicist and space technology consultant with 15 years of experience in lunar mission planning and research.
